Arguably the most exciting time of year in the football calendar is the start of the European knockout stages. Because of various factors ranging from unbalanced draws to injuries to dips in form, it is almost impossible to predict the way it all unfolds, which is why we all love it so much. And yet, here I am doing my best to put the final 16 contenders for the biggest trophy in club football in a ranking order. I’ve taken a few categories into consideration to hopefully be as accurate as possible, but I’m sure some of this is wildly incorrect. We’ll start at number 16, going from least likely to lift the trophy to most likely.
16. Copenhagen
Group Stage Performance
There is no doubting that the Danes are massive outsiders in this competition, but that isn’t anything new for them this season. When they were drawn in a group alongside Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Galatasaray, most pundits picked them to finish bottom of the pile. Remarkably, despite throwing away leads to draw then lose their first two games, Copenhagen beat Manchester United and Galatasaray whilst also earning a valiant draw in Munich. Their group stage performances were full of guts and grit, but they also proved themselves to be an exciting attacking side at times.
Domestic Form
In the Danish Super League this season, in which they usually dominate, they are in third, three points behind leaders Midtjylland, who themselves didn’t even make it through the qualifiers for the UEFA Europa Conference League. This speaks to both the scale of Copenhagen’s achievement to even make it to this stage and the disappointment of their domestic performances this season. They will have to call upon some of the European magic they have summoned this season once again if they are to stand any chance of making the last 8.
Matchup
That is because the side in their way are defending champions Manchester City. While Copenhagen will point towards their strong performances against City’s arch rivals in the group stage, they will know deep down that this is a different test altogether. The Parken is a fortress and the atmosphere in the side’s home games this year has been consistently immense so don’t be surprised if they get some kind of result in the first leg. That said, once City are back in the Etihad, they become an even greater challenge. Just last season at this exact stage, City were held 1-1 in their first leg at RB Leipzig before winning 7-0 in the return leg. Not many are giving Copenhagen a chance and it’s easy to see why.
Player to Watch
That said, they do boast a lot of interesting players. Midfielder Lukas Lerager was their star man in the group stage, netting three goals from midfield and Denis Vavro has from time to time unleashed long range rockets from centre back. Rasmus Hojlund’s two brothers Emil and Oscar both also play for the club but the real man to watch is 18-year-old sensation Roony Bardghji.
With 7 goals in 17 league appearances and a handful of eye-catching displays in Europe, Bardghji has attracted attention from both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. He’ll be one of the players Copenhagen look to for inspiration in this tie, and he will know it will be a chance to further put his name in the shop window. The youngster will have high hopes he can follow in the footsteps of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexander Isak and become the next great Swedish attacking export.
15. Lazio
Group Stage Performance
While not quite the underdogs that Copenhagen are, Lazio are being similarly dismissed from discussions of possible quarter-finalists. Their group stage performances were solid, picking up 10 points, 7 of which came at home. Admittedly, their group of Atletico Madrid, Feyenoord and Celtic was one of the most lightweight of the bunch, and their campaign could’ve ended much sooner had it not been for very late goals in their first two matches, including a now iconic header from goalkeeper Ivan Provedel.
Domestic Form
Maurizio Sarri has been a man under pressure at times this season after what was truly an astounding rise to 2nd place last campaign. Lazio are lumbering in midtable in Serie A and have been one of the streakiest teams in the league. Most recently they followed a four game winning run with a three game winless run. Despite that, they are still just 5 points behind fourth placed Atalanta despite being all the way down in ninth, showing just how competitive the top four race in Italy will be this year. The verdict on Sarri’s future will not be decided yet, but his side need to find form and fast.
Matchup
Like Copenhagen, a large part of why Lazio are so unfancied is their matchup with giants Bayern Munich. While the Bavarians have looked beatable at times this season, their sheer firepower and European knowhow will likely prove too much for Lazio, but stranger things have happened in this competition. The Stadio Olimpico will need to be bouncing for the first leg, and the Italians will have to rely on the defensive steel that served them so well last season.
Player to Watch
Lazio are by no means a free flowing attacking side and have found goals fairly hard to come by this season, but if they are to punish Bayern for their openness defensively, Spaniard Luis Alberto will be the man they have to trust to find the killer pass. Alberto, who has been seemingly unsettled at the club at times, only has 1 assist in the competition so far this season, but he has created 3.1 chances per 90, more than Jude Bellingham (3), Ilkay Gundogan (2.6) and Bruno Fernandes (2.3). Lazio will get chances against this Bayern side as long as Alberto plays to his best ability.
14. RB Leipzig
Group Stage Performance
RB Leipzig’s group stages this season went about as well as could be expected. They gave group winners Manchester City two tough matches despite losing both and boasted a 100% record against the other two teams in the group, Young Boys and Red Star Belgrade. They played a pretty free-flowing attacking style, scoring 13 goals and conceding 10 in their 6 games.
Domestic Form
It’s been a strange Bundesliga season in general and Leipzig have largely epitomised that. Having looked comfortable in the top four going into the winter break, they came out of it losing three successive games seeing them lagging behind in fifth. Their goal contributions have come from several avenues, even if they are largely coming from Lois Openda.
Matchup
Another team down near the bottom here with a matchup it’s hard to see them getting through. It doesn’t get much more daunting than Real Madrid in the Champions League. While it’s not the Spaniards best ever team by a long stretch, they are still the European experts and have more nous and experience to call upon than any other team in the competition. While Leipzig will feel they can punish Real’s depleted defence, it’s hard to see a way they come away with a win in this one over two legs considering their inconsistency at times this season.
Player to Watch
While Xavi Simons is a joy to watch and will be a handful for Real’s defenders, Lois Openda is in every sense the star man. Openda is leading the way in a quietly exciting new Belgian golden generation alongside Arthur Vermeeren, Jeremy Doku and Johan Bakayoko. He has 18 goals in 29 appearances for the club so far after a strong season with Lens last campaign. He is lightning quick, outscoring his xG, is adept with both feet and his head and at just 23 years old, likely has his best years ahead of him. Like Bardghji, he is very much in the shop window and will see these games as an opportunity in the same way he did his group stage encounters with Manchester City, in which he grabbed three goals in two matches.
13. Porto
Group Stage Performance
Porto’s group stage story is a similar one to Leipzig’s, with two defeats to group winners Barcelona contrasting with convincing wins in both ties against Shakhtar Donetsk and Antwerp. They scored 15 goals on the way to the knockout stage, including a hat-trick from Evanilson in Belgium. Reaching the last 16 would’ve been an expectation for Porto in the group they were drawn in, so there may be a sense that a lot of the pressure is off.
Domestic Form
Their league standing on the other hand, is a cause for concern. Sitting in third place in a league where they’ve finished in the top 2 every year since 2015/16, with both Sporting and Benfica building a moderate gap at the top. Admittedly, Porto are unbeaten in their last six, winning four and drawing two, so maybe they are hitting good form just at the right time for a deep European run.
Matchup
I give Porto a bit more of a chance than Copenhagen, Lazio or Leipzig in their respective matchups, but they are far from favourites over two legs against an Arsenal side who, when they are on form are among the most formidable sides in Europe. That said, the “when they are on form” part of that sentence is key. Porto are incredibly resilient defensively, and won’t let this be a pretty watch. If they can hang on and keep both legs competitive, they may just have the know-how to pull off an upset as they are consistently present at this stage or further in the Champions League every season.
Player to Watch
As mentioned, Porto are not exactly an easy-on-the-eye team. That said, they do have a clinical striker in Evanilson that their round of 16 opponents lack. He is in a strong run of goalscoring form this season, scoring 8 goals from just 4.95 xG in the league. He is tenacious and creates chances for others too. It may be more of a question of if they can provide him with enough chances but if he gets any, he’s likely to put them away.
12. Napoli
Group Stage Performance
With Napoli begins a new tier of teams for me. While I would be surprised if any of those bottom four made it into the quarter-finals, I certainly would not be surprised to see Gli Azzuri at that stage. Napoli were not exactly convincing at times during the group stage, but gave Real Madrid a scare or two and did enough to get through quite comfortably in second place. Injuries to star striker Victor Osimhen meant goals had to be shared around more than usual, with no player scoring more than once for them in the group stage.
Domestic Form
While at this point last year, Napoli were one of the most in form and formidable teams in Europe, their defence of the Scudetto has been rather disastrous. They sit all the way down in seventh, four points off a Champions League spot for next season and an asburd 22 points off league leaders Inter Milan. Neither Rudi Garcia nor Walter Mazzari have been able to come close to the wonderful football the club played under Luciano Spalletti last term.
Matchup
That said, unlike the bottom four teams in this ranking, Napoli’s matchup is quite a hard one to call. Barcelona are in somewhat of an injury crisis (and an identity crisis) but I still have them as slight favourites. Their first leg isn’t until the 21st of February, which allows plenty of time for Osimhen to return from AFCON and try and lead the line for the team in this crunch matchup.
Player to Watch
Despite the build up I’ve given him, I don’t think Osimhen is the most key player for Napoli if they are to win this tie. Georgian Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was sensational in their title winning season, particularly in the first half of the campaign and while his goal contribution numbers have dropped this season, his performances have still been at a high level. If both he and Osimhen play, Napoli fans will be able to be much more confident about their progression to the next round with the connection the two have on the pitch.
11. Real Sociedad
Group Stage Performance
Admittedly, Sociedad are perhaps the greatest wildcard on this list and the hardest to predict. Their performance in the group stages went way beyond expectation. In a group with Inter Milan, Benfica and RB Salzburg, many predicted La Real to finish third or fourth but they defied the odds to finish top of the pile unbeaten. Having conceded just two goals in six matches, they really showed their steel whilst still occasionally when needed, playing some eye-catching football.
Domestic Form
Their league form has been less impressive, lying in a distant sixth place with the chance of returning to this stage next season almost gone entirely. While still incredibly defensively sound (joint-third least goals conceded in La Liga), 10 draws in 23 games is a problem with the side as of writing this section on a streak of three straight 0-0 draws.
Matchup
Now, I don’t think Sociedad are a better team than Napoli. That said… they may just have the perfect matchup, which bumps them up a spot. La Real are willing to frustrate their opponents and play a defensive style which could stand them in good stead against Paris Saint-Germain. For so many reasons (which we’ll get into later), PSG will have so much pressure on them to ease through the tie, but La Real will not allow any such thing. They will be able to look at Newcastle’s four points from two games against the French side and take real encouragement. I am still slightly favouring PSG just because I worry about Sociedad’s ability to score goals over two legs based on what we’ve seen so far this season.
Player to Watch
Despite their cagey style of play, Sociedad don’t lack exciting attacking players. Brais Mendez was arguably their star man in the group stages, but the man who regularly has been grabbing headlines with his performances is the twerking Japanese winger Takefusa Kubo. Former Real Madrid prodigy Kubo has been shining this season, with 6 goals and 4 assists in all competitions, but his impact goes beyond that. His mere presence on the pitch and his dynamic running makes for a headache for defenders which may allow spaces to open up for their other attackers. Beyond any other metric, Kubo is the most fun player to watch in this team.
10. PSV Eindhoven
Group Stage Performance
Perhaps the most impressive thing about PSV’s group stage campaign is how well they came back from what could’ve been a damaging 4-0 defeat at Arsenal on matchday 1. After that heavy defeat, they went undefeated the rest of the way and pipped Lens and Sevilla to 2nd in a competitive group.
Domestic Form
Remarkably, until recently the Dutch side had a perfect league record this season. By January 20th, they had played 17, won 17. The incredible form they were able to maintain has only been slightly stuttering with a pair of recent draws away from home, but Peter Bosz’s side have been doing a remarkable job all season so far, scoring over 3 goals a game on average and conceding just 9 in 20 matches. While the Eredivisie is far from the most competitive league in Europe, their relentless form counts for something.
Matchup
Arguably, PSV’s matchup could well be the best matchup to watch of the bunch. The high-flying, free-scoring Dutch side come up against Germans Borussia Dortmund, who are known largely for being one of the most chaotic and unpredictable sides in Europe in recent years. Expect goals, lots of them. It’s a hard tie to call but I give the edge to Dortmund barely, but it’s the prediction I am least sure of out of any of these ties. Should PSV get past Dortmund, they likely will be unfancied but will also be carrying a lot of confidence from the season they’re having.
Player to Watch
While there are plenty of fun players in this team to look out for, Johan Bakayoko is my basic choice, especially with Noa Lang out for the season. Your eyes will be glued to Bakayoko every time he gets the ball. He is a classic throwback winger, pacey with a box of tricks and incredibly direct. While occasionally his end product could be improved, it’s definitely come a long way in his rise to being one of the stars of this team. His 2.9 successful dribbles per 90 puts him ahead of the likes of Jamal Musiala (2.8) and Vinicius Junior (2.7). There’s plenty of raw talent here, and the Belgian will need to be at the top of his game if PSV are to advance.
9. Borussia Dortmund
Group Stage Performance
I wasn’t lying when I said this was the closest matchup to call, as Dortmund come straight after PSV and are the first side I’m mentioning that I actually think will win their tie. That said, if I was basing all this purely on group stage performance, Dortmund would have to be near the top. Despite losing their opening match 2-0 in Paris, Dortmund were able to top the group of death over PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle. The German side were resilient and found ways to win against the best opposition around. You could argue on paper that PSV are actually the weakest team they’ve played up to this point in the tournament, but Dortmund will know better than to underestimate their opponents given their disappointing recent European record.
Domestic Form
Having come so close to beating Bayern to the Bundesliga title last season, Dortmund fans have every right to be disappointed with how this season has gone so far. Even with the large hole left behind by Jude Bellingham, being 14 points behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen is not what they would’ve wanted in the slightest. Recent form has been improved though. They haven’t lost in two months (which includes a couple of weeks off for a winter break), and have won four of their last five.
Matchup
The more I think about this tie, the more excited I get. The parity between the teams and the potential for goals and chaos is enough to get me excited, but the homecoming for PSV manager Peter Bosz to his former club is the icing on the cake. There isn’t much in terms of analysis here, but pointing to potential matchups across the pitch is enough to get the brain going, Bakayoko vs Maatsen being chief among them. For all you goal-hungry fans out there, get seated for this tie.
Player to Watch
Niclas Fullkrug is not the typical player to watch. He’s not as dynamic as Ian Maatsen or Donyell Malen, but Fullkrug’s performances over these two legs will be key. He has his doubters despite his very strong rate of goal contributions this season, but he’ll need to make sure he finishes the chances that come on this stage. He has 10 goals and 7 assists in the Bundesliga this season but just 1 goal in 6 Champions League outings is not good enough for a team’s premier scorer of goals. I’m a fan of Germany’s first choice number 9, he’s a bit of a throwback, and I just have a feeling his contributions will make the difference in this tie.
8. Barcelona
Group Stage Performance
It feels quite strange putting a team this talented this low in the ranking, but there are plenty of reasons for it. Despite being given what was a largely favourable group, Barca only just won it after losing two of their six games. Performances were mixed and a lack of goals from talisman Robert Lewandowski were a big problem.
Domestic Form
Domestic form has not been great either. Coming off the back of winning La Liga for the first time since 2019, Barca are on the fringes of the title race and are borderline out of it, 6 points behind Girona and 8 points behind Real Madird. The biggest reason for that has been their depleted defense, which has both been ravaged by injuries and has not been playing to the level of last season.
Matchup
Joao Felix, Alejandro Balde, Ferran Torres, Gavi, Raphinha, Sergi Roberto. All these players are absent for Barca currently, and star goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen is only now returning from an extended setback. Playing Napoli, Barca are going to be favourites given the Italians are, if anything, in more of a dysfunctional season than the Catalan side, but it is only slightly less of a coin flip than PSV vs Dortmund. With all the talent that will still be on the pitch and the pressure on both clubs to make something of a European run in a disappointing domestic season, it should be a great watch. Should Barca make it to the quarter-finals, they will need to hope that both their injury and identity crises reach some kind of solution if they are to compete with the top sides in Europe because unfortunately for them, they are not as good a side as they were last season as it stands now.
Player to Watch
Even with all the injuries, this is still a side stacked with talented players, but the one who I think is most likely to make a key difference in the tie is Ilkay Gundogan. One place where Barcelona do have the advantage over Napoli in my opinion is the midfield, with Frenkie de Jong and Gundogan both ranking among the best in the world. Both will be looking to control the tempo of the game but there will also be an added pressure on Gundogan to provide a goalscoring touch, which he showed he was able to in the biggest moments last season as he captained Manchester City to an historic treble. He does have 10 goal contributions in the league this season and his recent form has been excellent, which is good news for Barcelona as he may need to step up in the big moments if his long-time friend Lewandowski continues to misfire.
7. Atletico Madrid
Group Stage Performance
Atleti were given a pretty nice draw, admittedly. That said, they won the group with ease and went unbeaten throughout the first stage of the tournament. The Spaniards scored 17 goals in the process, including 5 each from Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata. The step up in quality from the teams in their group in the knockout stages will be drastic, but this is a team experienced in European knockout football and are able to, moreso than almost any other team in Europe, frustrate their opposition.
Domestic Form
Sitting a spot below Barcelona in the league, it may seem odd to put Atletico ahead of them in this ranking, especially considering their more difficult tie, but the reality is that Atleti’s recent form has been fantastic, particularly at home. I don’t think they quite have enough for a late title charge from 10 points adrift, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they leapfrog Barcelona and even Girona before the end of the season based on the way they have been playing recently. A recent draw in the Madrid derby highlights their improvement throughout the season.
Matchup
Atleti are the only team in the top 8 that I do not think will win their last 16 matchup, and are above both Dortmund and Barcelona who I *do* think will advance. It’s true, of all the second placed teams, Inter Milan would be the last one you would want to face, but I would absolutely not be surprised if Diego Simeone summons some of his old European witchcraft to make it past last season’s finalists. At that point, I absolutely would rather play Dortmund or Barcelona in the quarter-finals than Atletico. When it comes to the match with Inter, it’s quite likely to be a cagey and scrappy affair with few goals but much like the Napoli vs Barcelona tie, the sheer quality of player on both sides should make for an enthralling watch.
Player to Watch
This was an easy one. Antoine Griezmann is not only comfortably Atleti’s best player, but his recent re-emergence as one of the best players in world football has been a joy to behold after what had seemed to be a career that was set to fizzle out. Griezmann’s finishing is as good as it’s ever been, but what has become most noticeable is his tendency to drop deeper and dictate the tempo from a midfield role whilst also getting stuck in for some tackles. He is one of the form players in world football and his all-around game is at an all-time peak at age 32. Griezmann is a joy to watch and his wizardry on the ball coupled with his hard work and grit makes him likely the best player that will set foot on the pitch in the tie with Inter. If he can have his way with what has been a sturdy Inter defence, Atleti stand a real chance.
6. Paris Saint-Germain
Group Stage Performance
Coming out of such a tricky group is an achievement in itself, but PSG were far from convincing. A 4-1 battering at Newcastle before only securing a point late on in the second game with them will not have done much to convince English viewers of the Parisians’ quality. While Luis Enrique seems to have instilled a greater sense of comraderie and an entertaining brand of football, performances have been inconsistent in general.
Domestic Form
PSG are top of Ligue 1, which should come as no surprise but is also not a sign of a great season for them at this point. They are comfortably 8 points ahead of 2nd place Nice and have lost just one league games this season, but in all truth storming the league they’ve won in 5 of the last 6 seasons will do nothing to convince anyone of their strength. They have looked more coherent under Enrique this season and perhaps losing Messi and Neymar has done them some good in terms of having a more hardworking team. I have admittedly been impressed by their transfer business too, with both Manuel Ugarte and Marco Asensio (when fit) putting in some great performances.
Matchup
Many are pointing to the French side’s matchup with Real Sociedad as a potential upset because of the Spanish side’s style of play and ability to limit opponents’ attacking prowess. That said, Enrique knows Spanish football and will be prepared to drill his side for what may end up being a bruising two legs. I do think PSG will have enough to overcome La Real even if it may not be pretty, but predicting them to make it further than the quarter-finals seems like a stretch, even if they definitely have the talent to. This is a side who are cursed by their own previous failures.
Player to Watch
As much as I would take great enjoyment in being a hipster and proclaiming Manuel Ugarte one of the most underrated defensive midfielders in Europe right now, there can be no other than Kylian Mbappe. French captain, World Cup winner, golden boot winner, likely future Ballon D’Or winner and likely future Real Madrid player. Mbappe is not only probably the best player on the planet, but he’s also the most exciting to watch. His electric pace and quick, skillful feet make him a menace for any defence, but you know all that. 29 goals in 28 games in all competitions this season is an absurd goal return, and he will need to carry that in the knockout stages. If he can? Well, if there’s anyone who can carry a team all the way to the final, it’s Mbappe. That said, historically that has not happened. PSG are the true Champions League under achievers now Manchester City won their first title. In what looks now almost certain to be Mbappe’s last season at the club, will he be able to take them all the way? My gut says no, but it feels like every time I doubt this man, he is able to show us all why he’s rated so highly.
5. Arsenal
Group Stage Performance
Arsenal’s group stage performances were mostly pretty impressive, particularly at home. In their three home games, they won all three, scoring 12 and conceding 0. Scoring 16 and conceding just 4 overall, Arsenal comfortably got through a group that many would have expected them to win, but their performances will have provided their fanbase hope that they can become a giant in this competition once again. I will say there is quite the gap between Arsenal and PSG, and I consider these top 5 teams to be the true contenders for the trophy.
Domestic Form
While a bit more inconsistent performance-wise than last season, Arsenal are still very much in the Premier League title race largely thanks to their vital 3-1 win over Liverpool. Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice have been their star men consistently and while depth is seemingly always a worry for their fanbase, having players like Leandro Trossard largely coming off the bench can only be a good thing.
Matchup
Arsenal will be massive favourites in their tie against Porto but will need to be patient and disciplined. Many of you might remember Arsenal’s Europa League elimination at the hands of Sporting Lisbon last season, and Arteta will be keen to avoid a similar fate against another stubborn but talented Portugese side. Goals have been a concern for the Gunners at times this season but as long as Saka and Martinelli are on form, that shouldn’t be a big issue at this stage. If they can play with intensity in the second leg at home like they have done at almost every game at the Emirates this season, they should be able to overcome any first leg deficit if there is one.
Player to Watch
I’m not sure I’ve ever been more wrong about a player than Declan Rice. Prior to his consistently excellent displays for England at EURO 2020 I had thought Rice was a touch overrated and wouldn’t be able to properly make the transition to a big club. But his last couple of seasons at West Ham and his international performances in that time were undeniable. Rice is among the 2 or 3 best holding midfielders in world football and his sheer physicality and determination on the pitch is a joy to watch. Many point to how current players wouldn’t be able to last a second in the 90s with the increased physicality of the game back then, but Rice is certainly an exception to that argument.
4. Inter Milan
Group Stage Performance
Inter will have gone into this season with high expectations after being losing finalists in this competition last season, and in many ways they have become an even better team than they were last season. That said, despite looking very strong in the group stage at times, they disappointingly slipped to 2nd just behind Real Sociedad despite going unbeaten after drawing their final two matches. This won’t shake Inter’s confidence though, and there is a reason they were the group runner-up that everyone wanted to avoid.
Domestic Form
This is where Inter are far harder to criticise. Suffering just one defeat and three draws in their 23 games so far this season and boasting a comfortable 7 point lead at the top over Juventus in Serie A, the Nerazzuri have been dominant in what was expected to be a tight title race in Italy. They boast both the league’s best attack and best defence with Simone Inzaghi finding the perfect balance with this team. While you could argue they were lucky to make it to the final last year given the route they made it, this is a much-improved Inter team and if they were to repeat that feat, it would be far less surprising.
Matchup
I would be tempted to put Inter higher on this list had they been given a kinder draw, but in Atletico Madrid they face fierce opposition and will likely be involved in quite the scrap to make it to the quarter finals. While I give Inter the edge, I would by no means be shocked to see Atleti win that tie. That said, if Inter can make it through that stern test, I don’t think any of these teams will want to play them over two legs. Before this season, Inzaghi’s Inter were known as being more of a great cup side than a great league side and that grit and determination will be imperative to their chances.
Player to Watch
What makes Inter so dangerous though is their mix of that steely defensive prowess and a real attacking threat. The wing back partnership Denzel Dumfries and Federico DiMarco is among the best in Europe and in Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella they have a midfield with a perfect balance of creativity, goal threat and bite. But the only man who could ever be their player to watch is Lautaro Martinez. Maligned for his performances at the World Cup for Argentina (rightly so, I should add), Inter’s captain and talisman seemingly came into this season with a fire burning inside him and a will to prove himself because he has played the best season of his career so far. 19 goals in 21 league games makes for a superb goal record, made even more incredible when you realise he’s not Inter’s primary penalty taker. He is among the best finishers in world football and if Atletico can shut him out over two legs, they will probably win the tie.
3. Bayern Munich
Group Stage Performance
In what has been a rather disappointing season so far by Bayern Munich’s lofty standards, their group stage performance makes for good reading. 5 wins and a draw in their 6 matches is an impressive feat that their fans have but shouldn’t take for granted, especially given the tricky away days in Copenhagen, Istanbul and Manchester. While performances have been occasionally disappointing and lackluster, the results speak for themselves. No complaints about the group stages.
Domestic Form
As I’m writing this, Bayern have just lost 3-0 to Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen in a result that puts them 5 points off the pace at the top of the Bundesliga. Of course, Bayern can never be written off and just last season they won a last gasp Bundesliga title over Borussia Dortmund after looking like the second best team in the country for most of the year. That said, this feels different and getting so soundly beaten by their biggest title rivals with performances that have not been convincing is cause for concern.
Matchup
That said… this may not be an entirely bad thing for Bayern’s Champions League hopes. Lazio is a pretty nice last 16 draw and I think most everyone is expecting the Bavarians to come out of it with a win, and with the amount of experience they have at their disposal, no one will want to play Bayern in the quarter-finals and beyond. On their day, their attacking firepower is unmatched across Europe, and if players like Coman and Gnabry can return to fitness there will be a real sense that Bayern can put all their eggs in the European basket. Of course, head coach Thomas Tuchel is a Champions League winner himself. Lazio may be able to frustrate Bayern if they can channel their defensive nous from last season, but it’s hard to envisage any outcome where Bayern aren’t in the last 8.
Player to Watch
It was always going to be Harry Kane, as much as I like Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala, Kane will need to step up in the big moments for Bayern to have a chance at winning this trophy again. A lot of the storylines around the club’s season are also revolving around Kane and his quest for a first professional trophy. Kane’s 24 goals in 21 appearances in the league this season is a better rate than anyone in Europe right now, and as long as he isn’t marked out of the game (which can happen when Bayern are frustrated by a low block), he will be a potential threat for the entire game.
2. Real Madrid
Group Stage Performance
Ah, Real Madrid. Just when you think they are going to start regressing they defy all criticisms. Going into this season with Joselu as their Karim Benzema replacement and gradually having their first choice goalkeeper and two centre backs all out to ACL tears, it would’ve been fair to expect a lesser Real Madrid this season. Then of course they went on and won all six of their group games, including two wins over Napoli, playing some great football and scoring some ridiculous goals along the way. Jude Bellingham’s four goals went a long way to helping them do it, particularly his late winner in a drab opener against Union Berlin which set them on their way for the campaign.
Domestic Form
Domestically it’s been arguably going even better, especially off the back of their drubbing of nearest rivals Girona giving them some breathing room at the top. What seemed set to be a disastrous season for Real swiftly turned into a quietly great one so far at least, and if they are able to hold on and reclaim the Spanish crown whilst also making a deep run in Europe, this may just go down as one of their greatest seasons considering all the circumstances.
Matchup
RB Leipzig are no pushovers, but the real reason they’re so low on this list is because of Real’s incredible European pedigree and recent record. Players like Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal are among the most decorated of all-time thanks to their time in Madrid, and they have the necessary experience to keep cool heads if things start to go awry. They also have exciting and dynamic youth in the likes of Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Bellingham that will be able to give pretty much any team headaches. This Real Madrid team aren’t necessarily the worst matchup on paper, with defensive midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni and full-back Carvajal their current centre back pairing but in practice they have been an almost unstoppable team this season and their proven track record only pushes them higher up the list here.
Player to Watch
This was pretty much a coin flip between Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior, but I’ve leaned the latter because I do think his pace and skill will be what helps Real unlock teams and will be more crucial against the bigger teams than Bellingham, who has been unbelievably good this season. The Brazilian has taken up a slightly more central role in the absence of Karim Benzema but still drifts wide left, and while his performances aren’t quite at the level of the last couple of years consistently, he is the man for the big occasion and Real look to his unique abilities when they need a moment of magic. If they are to topple the seemingly unstoppable juggernaut that is Manchester City, he will need to be the man.
1. Manchester City
Group Stage Performance
Like Real, Manchester City won all six of their group games in what was admittedly a weaker group. Erling Haaland unsurprisingly lead the way with 5 goals and despite needing to come from behind in the second half of a couple of games, City rarely got out of second gear.
Domestic Form
Much was made of the loss of captain Ilkay Gundogan during City’s stuttering spells during this season’s Premier League, but that talk has seemingly died down as City are again seen as favourites in what has become a three-way title race. Injuries to Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne only partially stalled momentum, with the likes of Julian Alvarez and Bernardo Silva able to step in with some great performances. By the end of the season, I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see another City treble.
Matchup
Copenhagen is pretty much a dream draw for City. No disrespect to the Danes, but I think most everyone is already putting City’s name among the last eight. They simply have too much firepower and if anything are coming into their best form of the season at the best time as they always seem to. As defending champions, the pressure will be on them to repeat the feat and everything seems to suggest they will barring an injury crisis or a lack of motivation, the latter of which seems unlikely under Pep Guardiola.
Player to Watch
The temptation to put Bernardo Silva (possibly my favourite player in the Premier League) here was very tempting, but I think we all know the man whose fitness will be most pivotal for City. If Kevin De Bruyne plays the rest of the season injury-free, I think you can almost guarantee City’s place in the final. The Belgian is still arguably the best midfielder in the world and has immediately reasserted his place into the side with goals and assists on his return from a lengthy injury setback. No player in the world is a better passer, but his dribbling, strength, endurance and goalscoring ability set him apart even more. I think quite a few people forgot quite how good he is during his lengthy period out and I’m sure he will be determined to remind everyone.
