With a month to go until the Champions League final and another two weeks after that until the EURO’s kick off in Munich, the primary contenders for the Ballon d’Or are starting to take shape. Of course with this type of award, the winners of those two finals in London and Berlin respectively will go a long way to decide the winner, but there seems to be a player pool that it will be selected from. At least in my opinion, one of these seven men will be the recipient of the 2024 Ballon d’Or and I’ve made an attempt to rank them from least likely to win to most likely as of this moment in time.
7. Rodri (Manchester City & Spain)
Almost indisputably the best pure number six in world football, Rodri would be higher on this list had City not already crashed out of the Champions League. As is, City are still on for the domestic double and Rodri’s influence is as invaluable as ever. If Spain can upset England and France and win it all in Germany, Rodri’s case would be much stronger. As is, his place in the top 10 of voting seems pretty set in stone, but he’s an outside shot for the title.
6. Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen & Germany)
He may be just 20 years old and not playing for a European powerhouse, but Florian Wirtz has had a season for the ages. The star man of Xabi Alonso’s still unbeaten (in all competitions at that) Bayer Leverkusen side, Wirtz is the crucial centrepiece of one of the greatest club sides we’ve seen in some time. They’ve already sealed the Bundesliga title but still have the DfB Pokal final and Europa League semi-finals to navigate. Wirtz will also undoubtedly be among the star men for the German national side at their home European Championships alongside fellow youngster Jamal Musiala. The rejuvenated Germans will want to make a good impression on home soil, and Wirtz will be crucial to that. 17 goals and 19 assists from attacking midfield already this season, if Wirtz is able to add to that in these big games to come, he may be able to make an unlikely push for the greatest individual honour in football. Like Rodri, he’s an outside bet, but if everything goes his way in the coming months we could be talking about one of the most unexpected yet deserved Ballon d’Or’s in the award’s history.
5. Phil Foden (Manchester City & England)
Like Rodri, City’s lack of European success may cost Foden, but what the Englishman has in his favour is being his club’s star player. Even Pep Guardiola himself has made the claim that Foden is the Premier League’s best player and there is every chance Foden takes home the PFA Player of the Season award. His 24 goals and 10 assists beat out the impressive Wirtz, with the one thing you might be able to level against him is his not being the main man for his country. That said, if he can become that main man at the EURO’s and lead England to the trophy, he’s almost a shoe-in for the award. Those are some big ifs though, and I think the four men above him just about have a better chance. These top five are in a tier of their own, and if I had to bet on the award it’d be on one of these five.
4. Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid & Brazil)
One of the most dynamic players to watch on the planet, Vinicius Junior is about as good as it gets on the biggest stage. Having just scored a composed brace in the Champions League semi-finals, the Brazilian is heating up more than ever to end this season. Real are the favourites to lift the Champions League trophy once again at Wembley and if they are to do so, you can bet Vinicius will have a hand in it. Brazil are not favourites at the Copa America and are very much not in their best shape. Had I more faith in his national team, he might crack the top three here, but with the calibre of seasons had elsewhere, it’s no guarantee that the potential league and European double would be enough to take the award for the winger.
3. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich & England)
This may just end up being a “what if” season for Harry Kane. From a statistical standpoint, he has been perfect. 42 goals and 11 assists in 43 appearances is absolutely absurd stuff. Bayern’s team performances have been underwhelming and may cost the Englishman a run at this award, but if they can win the Champions League and Kane provides a good account of himself at the EURO’s, I’d make Kane a frontrunner. As England’s talisman, they will be looking to him for inspiration throughout the tournament, which in fairness to him he often provides. I could certainly see a world where Kane can win this award, especially given his consistently world class play over the past decade or so.
2. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid & England)
There being three England players in the top five is frankly absurd, but Bellingham deserves this hype more than even the other two. When he signed for Real Madrid, I don’t think anyone quite expected the instant impact he would make and his instant establishment as one of the side’s leaders. His goal output has been nothing short of remarkable and like the rest of the players on this list, has the opportunity to separate himself from the crowd at the European Championships this summer. Putting him above Vinicius is not really down to comparing the talent of the two players, but more down to Bellingham’s remarkable season and his greater chances of international success in the Summer. But even if England don’t win the Euros, if Real win the Champions League and Bellingham puts in a good performance in Germany, you can begin to pencil his name on the award. But…
1. Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain & France)
… there is a sense of inevitability around Kylian Mbappe. He is still only 25 years old, but the fact he hasn’t yet won a Ballon D’or feels strange. He has been among the five best players in the world for each of the past five seasons, and on an individual level he has been the best player in Europe this season. With a transfer to Real Madrid finally seemingly on the horizon, Mbappe’s 43 goals and 10 assists in 44 games is near identical to Kane’s record while the Frenchmen has played mostly from the left wing. If the award was purely on who is due the award by now or purely on the level of an individual season, Mbappe would walk it. But those are only two of the three main factors. Mbappe needs to win either the Champions League or the EURO’s to ensure he fends off Bellingham and the rest in my mind. The latter seems more likely given France’s recent consistency at international tournaments and PSG’s propensity to collapse, but even without either of those honours, it would not be a shock if Mbappe won it. I think most people would agree he’s the best player on the planet at the moment, which should be reason enough to put him at #1 on this list.