It’s hard to believe it was almost a year ago now that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs sealed their second-straight Super Bowl win, and while they have looked ropey as the season has gone on, there remains an air of inevitability around the team once again this season. That said, the lineup of playoff teams this year features a lot of franchises that will feel good about their chances with going toe to toe with the Chiefs. So… let’s rank them! I’ll be going by least likely to win the super bowl to most likely. A lot of these are interchangeable so try not to get *too* worried about the order.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ah, Pittsburgh. Doomed to the same fate every season. They’re always a playoff team, but they always look ready to end the season before they even take the field in January. Russell Wilson looked pretty solid for large parts of the season, but the offensive fluidity seems off lately. They’re heading into the playoffs on the back of four straight defeats and while I don’t feel they are undoubtedly the weakest team in the playoffs, a road trip to the red-hot Ravens is pretty much their nightmare matchup… especially since they were handily dealt with by Baltimore two weeks ago. They might make the scoreline look tight, but they’re the only team I have no faith in seeing in the divisional round.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are a really interesting team to analyse. On their day, they could put 50 points against pretty much any defense in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is playing arguably the best football of his career and even with the injuries to their offensive weapons and a fair amount of self-sabotage, they won their division for a fourth straight year. A home game against the inexperienced Washington Commanders should make for an evenly matched contest and I would absolutely not be surprised to see them make it. That said, the Bucs defense has been… underwhelming let’s say. They are bottom 5 in interceptions and bottom 10 in touchdowns allowed. Pair that with Baker’s occasional penchant for turnovers and the Bucs are hard to trust. These next few are all in the same tier, but the Bucs fall just to the bottom of it purely because of their inconsistency.

12. Houston Texans

The Texans are basically the same team as the Bucs, but inverted. CJ Stroud’s second season struggles have been well-documented (and perhaps slightly exaggerated) and the offensive line’s struggles (far from exaggerated) have been glaring since week one. Similarly to the Bucs, it’s hard to trust the Texans. That said, they are a bit less chaotic than Tampa, and have shown the ability to win ugly and play it close against a lot of the league’s best teams. The defense has been pretty dominant at times this season, with an electric pash rush duo of Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter and an elite secondary which has bailed out the offense on many occasions. This means Houston are going to be an awkward team for anyone to face. They’ll keep it low-scoring and despite their struggles, the offense is more than capable (and has showed) explosive plays through Stroud, Nico Collins and Joe Mixon which can change games. As a Texans fan though… there’s still a lot of work to be done if we’re to climb up these ranks next season.

11. Washington Commanders

The talk in the offseason that of the three top QBs in the 2024 draft class, Jayden Daniels was the least polished and least likely to succeed right away. How wrong so many of us were, because Daniels has been an absolute sensation this season. The Commanders have probably been the most surprising NFC team this season overall and are well-coached, balanced and versatile. The run game is dynamic and unpredictable and the defense has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of ability. Expect a shootout against the Bucs, where I have a feeling Daniels might just push Washington into the divisional round. After that… it’s hard to imagine Washington going any further against the elite of the NFC with such little experience, but there is plenty to be optimistic about around this team.

10. Denver Broncos

Speaking of surprises, I think most people would’ve pencilled in the Broncos for a top 10 pick before this season started. Perhaps even more surprisingly than Daniels’s performances, Bo Nix has looked assured and exciting as Denver’s new quarterback. While you could argue the Broncos are a touch too high on this list given that they have a tougher matchup than any of the teams below them on this list aside from maybe the Steelers, the Broncos have a real game-changer – their defense. In most stats they are found in the top 5 this season and, like Houston, are able to find ways to win ugly. Couple that with a more fluid offense that can also be competitive in a shootout and you have the perfect recipe for a potential upset team. The Bills will be an incredibly difficult opponent, but I could definitely see an eventuality where the Broncos steal the win there.

9. Los Angeles Chargers

Even with the imminent arrival of serial winner Jim Harbaugh, I don’t think many Chargers fans expected this season to go this well. QB Justin Herbert’s poise and efficiency is now finally being helped by good coaching, a strong defense and a consistent run game. The one weakness you could point to for the Chargers is a lack of a true #1 receiver, which keeps them in this tier, but the turnaround of fortunes that Harbaugh has overseen has been impressive. Herbert is also one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and if he’s given the opportunity to, he’s good enough to win a playoff game single-handedly. No teams in the AFC will want to play the Chargers.

8. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are a weird team to evaluate and thus are sandwiched between the contenders tier and the potential spoilers tier. Midway through the season, the Rams offense had caught fire and was starting to look unstoppable but the defense was letting the other side down. Then, as the defense started to figure things out, the offense began to struggle. But the fact remains the Rams have some of the most dangerous pieces on offense in the league. Matt Stafford is still a top 10 quarterback pretty comfortably and in Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and veteran Cooper Kupp, he has as good a supporting cast as he could ask for. If the young defense can keep up their improvements, it seems inevitable that the offense will catch fire. If that happens, the Rams can go toe to toe with anyone. I’m going to have to see it to believe it, but keep an eye on them.

7. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay have a pretty brutal wildcard round matchup. Going out to Philly to play the Eagles is going to be tough for any team in the league. That said, the Packers are among the few teams that can go toe to toe with the Eagles in the NFC. Jordan Love has been inconsistent this season but much like former Packer Brett Favre, he never stops going for those big time throws. Josh Jacobs is one of the best running backs in the league so if Love does struggle, the Packers have an effective trump card and as has been a trend with many teams on this list.. have a top 10 defense. I don’t think they’ll beat the Eagles, but I’d be far from shocked if they did and it’s probably the pick of the wildcard weekend matchups.

6. Minnesota Vikings

There is an argument to be made that Justin Jefferson is the best player in the NFL. I’m not sure I’d go quite that far, but his resume speaks for itself. He is an elite, game-changing wide receiver the likes of which are a rare breed. His presence alone would make the Vikings a team most other sides would want to avoid, but for the first time in his career the Vikings are playing like one of the best teams in the league as a unit. Sam Darnold has been a revelation (despite some wobbles late in the season that should be considered going into the playoffs) and Brian Flores has transformed the defense. The signings of both Jonathan Grenard and Andrew Van Ginkel have proved incredibly smart with both being pro bowlers this season. If it weren’t for their divisional rivals the Lions, they would undoubtedly be the feel-good story of the season, especially considering the death of their rookie cornerback Khyree Jackson before the season started. A trip to L.A. to play the Rams in the wildcard round will be far from a picnic and it’s hard to imagine them beating the two juggernauts of the NFC away from home, but the Vikings are a great team who will do everything they can to win that first ever ring.

5. Buffalo Bills

How much can Josh Allen do alone? That’s the big question revolving around the Bills. A month ago I think a lot of people would’ve put them in the top three on this list. Allen’s superman impressions against the 49ers, Chiefs and Rams pretty much wrote his pitch for MVP (which he’ll probably win) and the performances of his supporting cast compared to expectations have been impressive. That said, the Bills will probably need to put up more than 30 in every playoff game to win the super bowl. Their defense is definitely weaker than those in the top four on this list and I don’t quite buy that their offense is that much better than any of them. That coupled with a potential trap game against the Broncos in the wildcard round makes me hesitant to put any higher. But when you’ve got Josh Allen at QB… anything’s possible.

4. Baltimore Ravens

Unlike Josh Allen, there isn’t really the feeling that Lamar Jackson *has* to do everything. In Derrick Henry he has a top 3 running back in the league, a strong offensive line and a defense which has slowly and slightly improved. Have they improved enough to go all the way? It’s hard to say. The Ravens definitely feel less hard to beat this year than they did last year (and the Chiefs still managed to do just that to a more ominous-looking Baltimore) but they are definitely catching fire at just the right time. They are definitely in the top tier of teams and have some of the strongest momentum in the league. BUT… if they are to win the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to go through Arrowhead. That’s more than a big enough reason to have them just outside of the top three.

3. Detroit Lions

Look, I really really really want to put the Lions at #1. For most of the season they have looked like the best team in football and are most definitely the team that any neutral will be rooting to win it all this season. They are balanced and don’t really have any weaknesses even with significant injuries in most positions. They also have home field advantage in the NFC. So why don’t I think they’ll go all the way to the Super Bowl? Well, it’s a coin flip between them and the #2 team on this list, but I think the Lions are just slightly less dominant defensively than their biggest NFC rivals and there is an underlying feeling that their bad luck with injuries is finally going to be reflected in their performances and results. Please please let me be wrong.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are looking as good as they ever have under Nick Sirianni, which is impressive given the farcical meltdown that was the second half of last season. Even with their elite performance levels and results, the Eagles have still suffered slightly from infighting and drama around their passing game. Luckily for them, that is the only real weakness to be found in this team. Their rookie secondary additions Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean immediately came in and became lockdown man-to-man defenders and the success of the addition of Saquon Barkley cannot be understated. Jalen Hurts is not Mahomes, Jackson or Allen, but he’s still a really good quarterback who is certainly good enough to lead this deeply talented team to the Super Bowl. They probably have slightly more firepower than the Lions but it’s close. At the end of the day though, all of these teams will be fighting towards a common goal, preventing the inevitable…

1. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs were pretty much coasting through the season until about a month ago. Many people were calling them the worst 1-seed in NFL history but alas, as December rolled around, the Chiefs pre-season was no more. Patrick Mahomes’s struggles now feel lifetimes ago and as always, the team is clicking into gear at just the right time. When you have the best coach in the league, the best quarterback in the league and a top 10 defense… you are putting yourself in a pretty great position to win it all. The fact the Chiefs are back as the 1-seed again this season makes it feel even more inevitable. It’s becoming clear that it’s not wise to bet against Mahomes, so at the #1 spot they go. Are they beatable? Of course. But they’ve proved the most stubborn team in the league. If you want to beat the Chiefs, you’ve got to hope a lot goes your way. It feels as though most of the world (me included) is in “anyone but the Chiefs mode” and there’s a reason for that… they are just too good, even when it doesn’t feel that way.